Hulyaipole Sector Update
As I indicated in a quick addition to my article about Weakening of Borders a couple of days ago, Russia seems to be getting its act together just a bit in the Hulyaipole/ Orikhiv sector. As Quaoar said in one of his recent DKos dailies, Russia has been shipping men and equipment to this area for a couple of weeks. The more aggressive mappers have shown multiple westward attacks out of Hulyaipole in that time, though most don’t show much movement or success as a result.
Well, the conservative one (Project Owl) finally showed a Russian advance worth noting in the area. Here is the result:
For detailed map conventions and methodology, see this article. Short-hand version: GREEN is old Russian forward edge. Bright RED is Russian advance. The BLUE line is the Ukrainian forward edge. The area between is “grey/no man’s land.” RED arrows and GREY line are more aggressive reporting by another mapper.
The old line that ran along Hulyaipole held there for several weeks, but it seems the pressure has had an effect to the tune of about 60 sq kms across a broad front. This probably wasn’t sudden, but rather the mapper simply recognizing the results of a slow creep over the last two weeks or so.
Zaliznychne at the new forward edge was a town of about 1,050 in 2022. In Apr 2023, it’s listed population was 38. That’s where the fight is right now. Tiny Myrne has changed hands several times in the past two months.
The unfortunate town names to start learning now are Huliapilsk and Novoselivka and Hirke and Verkhnya Tersa. Still a L-O-N-G way to Orikhiv, though do not forget that town has Russians to its south as well.
PS: For some reason, I get the impression that there are fewer Ukrainian units to the W of the Russians in this sector than there were 2-3 weeks ago, but that’s just an impression with no data to back it up. If true (probably not), where’d they go? Maybe someone’s collecting a force…????? Let the pure speculations and opinions and conspiracy theories commence!
PPS: After comparing the map from four weeks ago with the current one and checking unit-by-unit, I find I have my head up my ass. No Ukrainian units have left the area and a new one has arrived, the 5th Assault Brigade probably from Kostyantynivka! So ignore that bit of speculation.
For the record, this is the first time anyone has ever admitted to being wrong on SUBSTACK, the place where you never have to say you’re sorry! Where’s dumbass Mattakar when you really need him?
Thank you @22Trucks! Both for alerting us unsuspecting members of the body public and then informing us.
As for pure speculation and theories, let's go with yours for a moment: Let's say General 22Trucks was in overall command of Ukrainian ground forces. Based on what you've seen with the pressure on different areas of the front and the consequences of Russian advances at each one, would this be the area you would feel best about pulling troops from in order to collect enough bodies to power a medium-scale (multi-brigade) counteroffensive? Or are the troops here considered elite and would be the best "tip of the spear"?