Misconceptions About Russia "Weakening Its Border"

A couple of days ago on Quaoar’s DKos Russian Stuff Blowing Up series was posted an entry with a Zelenskyy statement that Russia was weakening its borders to increase the size of its force inside Ukraine. In the comments about this entry, we see that this has been misinterpreted by the DKos community.

Here is what President Zelenskyy said:

In a month, we eliminate the same number of occupiers as the Russians mobilize, yet the size of their military contingent on the territory of Ukraine continues to grow. That is, we believe they are increasing their grouping by bringing in personnel from their strategic reserves. We discussed this with the Commander-in-Chief and the Chief of the General Staff – how we are countering it. We believe this is a risky step for the Russians, because by doing so they are weakening their borders with other states, where the situation for them is not simple. Nevertheless, they have taken this step.

Recently, together with Syrskyi and Hnatov, we also reviewed new Russian military maps. They want to capture Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, and Pokrovsk by the end of April. This is impossible, but it is not the first time they have set themselves some kind of deadline, and now they have set this as a target. I have already spoken about the meeting with British intelligence – we have a relationship of trust with them. They also do not see any capability for the Russians to achieve this.

The DKos comments then lit up with celebration of “new opportunities” for Ukraine due to weak Russian border forces and things like “let the Freedom for Russia Legion cross the border and head to Moscow.”

Let’s ignore the fact that the furthest the Freedom for Russia Legion has marched into Russia is about 5-6 kms and Moscow is 500 kms road distance away at its closest point for a moment. Let’s look instead at what President Zelenskyy ACTUALLY SAID. The key words people are missing are “strategic reserves” and “borders with other states.”

Russia is weakening forces in areas other than Ukraine to strengthen the force that faces Ukraine. Russia has 13 other land borders: Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Belarus, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, Mongolia, and North Korea. Most of these do not pose a threat and none is an immediate threat. However, there are many thousands of military and guard soldiers facing these borders or in cantonment areas dozens or hundreds of kms from these borders whose purposes are to a) train and b) be there if something happens. These are the soldiers to whom President Zelenskyy refers.

If we look at Ukraine’s actual border with Russia and what is happening there, what we actually see is increased Russian activity, not a decrease. Within the past few weeks, Russia has done attacks of varying size (usually tiny) into or towards Sopych, Myropillya, Pokrovka, Novodmytrivka, Ryasne, Veterynarne, Nesterne, and Dihtiarne. These are intended to divert Ukraine’s attention/resources and to get brownie points for the local Russian commanders. This is in addition to their normal larger activities in the big areas of Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and the Sumy incursion.

President Zelenskyy in this article does not speak of Russia weakening its border with Ukraine as an opportunity to attack. He is speaking of how Russia is accomplishing its increase in manpower inside Ukraine and the challenges that poses for the Ukrainians.

He goes on to say that Russia will not accomplish its stated goals for April even with this increased manpower, a statement that is without any doubt true. Russia is pretty much dead in the water right now, though it continues to push in several area we have previously discussed.

Hulyaipole/Orikhiv is the only one I worry about in the mid-term future.

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UPDATE (3:12PM Eastern):

Wow! That was quick. Project Owl just 20 minutes ago published an update that shows a very wide advance out of the Hulyaipole direction that is ballpark 60 sq kms of territory in the direction of Orikhiv. I’ll see what I can find out tonight.