As I indicated in a quick addition to my article about Weakening of Borders a couple of days ago, Russia seems to be getting its act together just a bit in the Hulyaipole/ Orikhiv sector.
Thank you @22Trucks! Both for alerting us unsuspecting members of the body public and then informing us.
As for pure speculation and theories, let's go with yours for a moment: Let's say General 22Trucks was in overall command of Ukrainian ground forces. Based on what you've seen with the pressure on different areas of the front and the consequences of Russian advances at each one, would this be the area you would feel best about pulling troops from in order to collect enough bodies to power a medium-scale (multi-brigade) counteroffensive? Or are the troops here considered elite and would be the best "tip of the spear"?
Given that Ukraine would suffer higher losses in attack than in defense and their greatest weakness is manpower, I would advise against such an attempt. Russia seems quite content to bash its head against a wall. I say let 'em bash away. Having said that, I have insufficient information to make such a call.
Russia is trying to reenter Kupyansk in force, though. If I had a few spare battalions lying around with nothing to do, I'd send some reenforcements there and some reenforcements to the Hulyaipole sector.
Kostyantynivka is about to turn into a house-by-house, block-by-block urban fight. I'm studying the town now and find that it is a town whose core has been hollowed out through the levelling of the old glass factories that formed its center along the river. This will likely be a fight in two distinct halves: NE and SW.
Thanks @22Trucks. I know you're averse to Ukraine risking large-scale offensive operations when the last couple didn't go well for Ukraine (June '23 offensive, Kursk invasion) and the war of strategic attrition seems to be tilting toward Ukraine. Good points for sure.
A couple of threads ago I asked about the Russian lines getting brittle and you thought they might be. The quality of Ru soldiers and equipment seems to be on the decline, and recent reports also indicate they're now on the wrong side of the force-regeneration/recruiting curve.
At some point isn't it worth gathering a force a strong enough to push somewhere hard enough to test for that brittleness? Local counterattacks are not going to reveal lack of large unit coordination and lack of training. The risk seems manageable and the rewards could be great.
Whether you agree that now is the time or not (and I know you think "not!"), I was still curious to hear where you think such a push would be most effective.
The main problem with offenses is that they by necessity require more resources than a static defense does.
You need a constant barrage of artillery shells pounding enemy positions. Currently, each artillery piece in the area is firing no more than five rounds per day (according to Ukrainian soldiers interviewed on the ground) rather than twenty or more rounds per hour. They aren't firing more, not because they don't have good targets to shoot at because they don't have the artillery shells.
You need armor to either create beaches in the enemy lines or to exploit breaches in the enemy lines. Once those tanks and other armor leave your lines, they have to be followed with tanker trucks full of fuel and a constant stream of trucks full of ammunition.
In the current environment, you'd need an increased number of drones in order to protect your tanks and armored vehicles. Plus drones to scout enemy positions and to bomb enemy positions.
And in order to protect the tanks from enemy infantry, you have to send out your own infantry. And those infantry forces have to be followed with a stream of trucks carrying food, water, ammunition, etc.
Even if you move troops from one place to the other on the map...that doesn't mean that you have the resources in that new position to go on a big attack.
Yes, the resources do not exist to do any of this, but this was simply a thought exercise to examine what to do if the resources DID exist undertaken at the request of one reader. There will be no offensive. I have been looking for things to write about and this was something to write about.
Actually, I thought this was a comment on the article that followed about Where to ATtack, not the Hulyaipole article. For this comment, I assumed that, if Ukraine move soldiers, they would move resources to go with them. I realized it was a super long-shot.
Thank you @22Trucks! Both for alerting us unsuspecting members of the body public and then informing us.
As for pure speculation and theories, let's go with yours for a moment: Let's say General 22Trucks was in overall command of Ukrainian ground forces. Based on what you've seen with the pressure on different areas of the front and the consequences of Russian advances at each one, would this be the area you would feel best about pulling troops from in order to collect enough bodies to power a medium-scale (multi-brigade) counteroffensive? Or are the troops here considered elite and would be the best "tip of the spear"?
Given that Ukraine would suffer higher losses in attack than in defense and their greatest weakness is manpower, I would advise against such an attempt. Russia seems quite content to bash its head against a wall. I say let 'em bash away. Having said that, I have insufficient information to make such a call.
Russia is trying to reenter Kupyansk in force, though. If I had a few spare battalions lying around with nothing to do, I'd send some reenforcements there and some reenforcements to the Hulyaipole sector.
Kostyantynivka is about to turn into a house-by-house, block-by-block urban fight. I'm studying the town now and find that it is a town whose core has been hollowed out through the levelling of the old glass factories that formed its center along the river. This will likely be a fight in two distinct halves: NE and SW.
Thanks @22Trucks. I know you're averse to Ukraine risking large-scale offensive operations when the last couple didn't go well for Ukraine (June '23 offensive, Kursk invasion) and the war of strategic attrition seems to be tilting toward Ukraine. Good points for sure.
A couple of threads ago I asked about the Russian lines getting brittle and you thought they might be. The quality of Ru soldiers and equipment seems to be on the decline, and recent reports also indicate they're now on the wrong side of the force-regeneration/recruiting curve.
At some point isn't it worth gathering a force a strong enough to push somewhere hard enough to test for that brittleness? Local counterattacks are not going to reveal lack of large unit coordination and lack of training. The risk seems manageable and the rewards could be great.
Whether you agree that now is the time or not (and I know you think "not!"), I was still curious to hear where you think such a push would be most effective.
The main problem with offenses is that they by necessity require more resources than a static defense does.
You need a constant barrage of artillery shells pounding enemy positions. Currently, each artillery piece in the area is firing no more than five rounds per day (according to Ukrainian soldiers interviewed on the ground) rather than twenty or more rounds per hour. They aren't firing more, not because they don't have good targets to shoot at because they don't have the artillery shells.
You need armor to either create beaches in the enemy lines or to exploit breaches in the enemy lines. Once those tanks and other armor leave your lines, they have to be followed with tanker trucks full of fuel and a constant stream of trucks full of ammunition.
In the current environment, you'd need an increased number of drones in order to protect your tanks and armored vehicles. Plus drones to scout enemy positions and to bomb enemy positions.
And in order to protect the tanks from enemy infantry, you have to send out your own infantry. And those infantry forces have to be followed with a stream of trucks carrying food, water, ammunition, etc.
Even if you move troops from one place to the other on the map...that doesn't mean that you have the resources in that new position to go on a big attack.
Yes, the resources do not exist to do any of this, but this was simply a thought exercise to examine what to do if the resources DID exist undertaken at the request of one reader. There will be no offensive. I have been looking for things to write about and this was something to write about.
Actually, I thought this was a comment on the article that followed about Where to ATtack, not the Hulyaipole article. For this comment, I assumed that, if Ukraine move soldiers, they would move resources to go with them. I realized it was a super long-shot.